Blacknessdefined’s Weblog

The Black Experience in America

Is it possible Barack could lose?

To some it is a forgone conclusion that Barack is going to win, but is that 100 percent certain.  There are only a handful of scenarios in which Barack loses.

1. A major terrorist attack happens.

2. A major world event happens in which your military expertise or foreign policy experience is critical such as Israel attacks Iran or vice versa.

3. Barack says or does something incredibly stupid that he is even seen incompetent by us.

4. White people just don’t vote for him because he is Black. (Bradley or Wilder factor)

5. John McCain does something incredibly stupid that disqualifies him in folks mind.

Scenario three and five are not likely but the others have a probability greater than 0.  Terrorist are still planning attacks, and our borders are as porous as ever.  Israel perceives Barack to be weak and not their strongest advocate and may preemptively strike Iran before the election.  They will probably restrain themselves but the more likely scenario is that a significant number of white people in the end will not vote for Barack.  The estimates range from 2-6 percent.  According to the Zogby poll, Barack has a 4 point lead. Zogby Poll: Barack has 4 point lead. I don’t think that is a safe number given the margin of error coupled with the Bradley or Wilder factor.  I know many people think the election is over but it really isn’t folks.


October 9, 2008 - Posted by | Education, power politics

1 Comment »

  1. Is it possible, that Obama’s lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here –

    Comment by | October 21, 2008

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: