To some it is a forgone conclusion that Barack is going to win, but is that 100 percent certain. There are only a handful of scenarios in which Barack loses.
1. A major terrorist attack happens.
2. A major world event happens in which your military expertise or foreign policy experience is critical such as Israel attacks Iran or vice versa.
3. Barack says or does something incredibly stupid that he is even seen incompetent by us.
4. White people just don’t vote for him because he is Black. (Bradley or Wilder factor)
5. John McCain does something incredibly stupid that disqualifies him in folks mind.
Scenario three and five are not likely but the others have a probability greater than 0. Terrorist are still planning attacks, and our borders are as porous as ever. Israel perceives Barack to be weak and not their strongest advocate and may preemptively strike Iran before the election. They will probably restrain themselves but the more likely scenario is that a significant number of white people in the end will not vote for Barack. The estimates range from 2-6 percent. According to the Zogby poll, Barack has a 4 point lead. Zogby Poll: Barack has 4 point lead. I don’t think that is a safe number given the margin of error coupled with the Bradley or Wilder factor. I know many people think the election is over but it really isn’t folks.
There is a growing sense that Barack Obama will be the next President. Now will he be the first or second Black President? Or have we relegated Clinton to non-black status? Managing expectations for Barack is very tough. As a Black man he is presumed to favor solving African American issues. So he will be scrutinized intensely by all races. My question to us is what does he have to do to make you happy should he be elected?
1. How many black cabinet members does he have to appoint?
2. If he afforded the opportunity to appoint a supreme court justice, does the individual have to be black?
3. Does he have to invest more in black schools, communities etc than predominately white?
4. If you lose your job will it be his fault?
5. If he is criticized by other blacks are they traitors?
6. If you lose your home will it be his fault?
7. What in your life has to change in order for you to feel he looked out for you?
8. Does he have to provide universal health care to be a successful President?
The President has significant authority and trust bestowed upon him by the American people, but do we understand his limitations. If the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate, which would be a veto proof majority, can the President make them do anything? The hope is that the President does not become an empty suit. What does Barack have to do for you?
Since the crisis is spreading and growing, the Secretary of the Treasury is signalling that the US may invest in banks to shore up confidence. Article: US to invest in banks.This in layman’s terms means they are going to spend more of your money to stop the bleeding. The credit markets and financial markets are frozen but the underlying problems besides corruption, greed, etc are fear and lack of confidence. That doesn’t change suddenly. We are going to be in this mess for a while. They are starting to predict approximately 2 years. Whoever wins the presidency is going to have to govern during hard economic times and will have to make hard choices that are going to piss off their constituents. So if you are expecting an improvement in your circumstances immediately, you will be disappointed.